The wheel has turned almost full circle in the war torn region of Afghanistan. The Taliban has returned to power through a barrel of the gun. Dr. Aniruddha Babar shares his observations on the current developments in Afghanistan.
THE TALIBAN RETURNS- SOME OBSERVATIONS AND CALCULATIONS
As the Taliban tore through Afghanistan making seemingly inexorable advances towards the ivory tower of power, the clouds of fear and uncertainty started showing up over South East Asia. I started exploring the wonders of Afghanistan during my academic years as a student when I developed friendships with some Afghan students who taught me about their country; its great Buddhist heritage and introduced me to the mystery of the ‘soul’ of “Pashtun” character- that gave ‘epic’ fights throughout history to the Persians, Greeks, Mauryans, White Huns, Kushans, Mongols, Timurids, Safavids, Afshars, Rashidun-Umayyad-Abbasid Caliphate, Ghaznavids, Seljud Turks, Ghauris, Tatars, Uzbeks, Mughals, Abdalians, Britishers and the other great Empires in the world before falling to their might. Such is the history of Afghanistan formerly known as “Gandhara” or “Gandhar Desh” which once was shining in the light of Buddha, Dhamma and Sangha for over a thousand years till the attack of Muslim invaders and consequent forceful conversion of the population transformed the socio-cultural fabric of the region.
As I write this article the Taliban successfully entered Kabul and completed the takeover of Afghanistan. The Taliban first stormed to power in 1996, with an open demonstration of medieval cruelty and a barbaric transition to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Twenty-five years later they were ousted from their seat in Kabul by the US and other NATO forces. Today on the 15th of August, 2021 Taliban has successfully gained a powerful entry in Afghan politics taking advantage of the departure of American and NATO forces. The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces — including a 1,80,000 strong Afghan National Army, and a police force with 1,50,000 personnel, besides an Air Force and other security wings including Special Service Operatives trained by the US military, have proved unequal to the task of holding on to territory and containing the Taliban as the events of surrenders have been witnessed.
Taliban Fighters have reached the parliament of Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani, current President of Afghanistan has stepped down and left the country. Taliban Commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar will be the new president of Afghanistan. Current circumstances lead us to believe that the “New Political Dimensions” will soon be drawn and that will be worse for Afghan citizens and also India. Taliban has already declared their Mission, Vision, Goals and Values when they captured power in 1996, the similar agenda to the tune of the creation of Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan will continue and Shariah Law will be installed and accordingly Enemies and Allies on the “International Platforms” will also be identified.
Taliban fighters have been in the “Jihaad” for over decades now. They have been trained and supported by Pakistan through its ISI, also many experts say that the Pakistani security establishment continues to provide Taliban militants sanctuary in the country’s western tribal areas to try to counter India’s influence in Afghanistan. Moreover, International observers remain concerned that the Taliban supports terrorist organizations, particularly Al-Qaeda. In its 2021 report, the UN team that monitors the Taliban said the group still has strong ties with Al-Qaeda however it remains unclear, they say, if the Taliban will follow through on its commitment under the U.S. peace deal to prevent an international terrorist attack emanating from Afghanistan, which of course is a great concern for India as well which has been fighting Pakistan sponsored terrorism in Kashmir since decades.
Taliban has serious issues with the Western Ideas, Ideals, liberal societal model and individual freedom & liberty. Their methods of governance derive validation through the verses of their religious texts which of course is a matter of concern for a modern generation of Afghan students. Will the rights of women be protected? Will the right to Education be recognized? Will the right of women to engage in work and profession of choice be recognized? What about Freedom of Speech & Expressions? Will the Taliban understand Freedom of Entertainment? What about Sports, Music and Movies, will the Taliban approve that? Finally the issue of Gender Equality. These are the basic concerns of the modern generation of Afghanistan in their teens, 20s and 30s which are absolutely valid considering the ‘nature’ of governance that was exhibited by the Taliban between 1996 and 2001.
The destiny of Afghanistan now has fallen in the hands of the Taliban. All eyes have been set on successive developments in the region. WEST remained silent when this great political drama was unfolding at the barrel of the Gun which reminds me of the cold silence of the WEST when Tibet fell to the hands of communist China.
India has been watching the developments in Afghanistan with watchful eyes. The victory of the Taliban was not possible without Pakistan therefore; in the future there will be chances that the new terrorist launch-pads might be developed in Afghanistan under the state protection at the behest of Pakistan. Also, the Taliban has been supported by China since Shanghai is eying on vast investment and strategic opportunities in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban regime. Who knows Afghanistan might become yet another Military station of China in the future. The presence of Islamic State operatives and the re-emergence of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan are other concerns of India and the world, however, let us not forget that these dangerous developments are happening exactly at the doorstep of India. The mess created by the cowardice of U.S. policymakers in Afghanistan posed super threats to India.
The USA made a great ‘TAMASHA’ of its own efforts of two decades in Afghanistan. Fleeing a war-torn country as a result of the ‘Doha Agreement’ between the Taliban and the USA was a short-sighted move that brought serious security challenges at the doorsteps of India which will have serious repercussions all over Asia and the world. The future is uncertain. India should be fully prepared to handle any military contingency; also, it should be ready to welcome Afghan Refugees.
India will have to be watchful of China, Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. It may be too early to comment on whether or not the strategic nexus between them will be formed. However, precautionary measures must be taken.
‘Research & Analysis Wing’ will have to play major, proactive role in collaboration with Defence Intelligence Agency, Intelligence Bureau, Aviation Research Centre, National Technical Research organization, Joint Cipher Bureau since the rise of the Taliban in our neighbourhood has brought Kashmir (and also the North-East India to certain extent) under the biggest threat like never before. I predict, Taliban with its allies like Al-Qaeda & Islamic State supported by Pakistan and encouraged by China will target Kashmir and attempt to influence the dynamics of the North East region.
However, a common Afghan has always been with India and India will remain concerned for the one who loves her. Bamiyan Buddha was destroyed by Taliban in March 2001, however, the “Ancient Bond of Love” that India shares through the common shared legacy of wisdom of the ‘Buddha’ with Afghanistan is indestructible.
Degree of Thought is a weekly community column initiated by Tetso College in partnership with The Morung Express. Degree of Thought will delve into the social, cultural, political and educational issues around us. The views expressed here do not reflect the opinion of the institution. Tetso College is a NAAC Accredited UGC recognised Commerce and Arts College. The editors are Dr Hewasa Lorin, Dr. Aniruddha Babar, Aienla A, Rinsit B Sareo, Meren Lemtur and Kvulo Lorin.
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